Gaza
Phase 2 of the US-backed peace plan is underway. A ceasefire holds since October 2025, but Israel continues military operations along the ‘Yellow Line’ and has violated ceasefire terms repeatedly. 72,000+ Palestinians killed since October 7, 2023. 1.4 million remain displaced across 1,200 sites. Reconstruction estimated at $50B+ but barely begun. The Iran war has diverted international attention.
Situation Overview
Current State: Fragile Ceasefire
Phase 2 of the US-backed peace plan is underway. A ceasefire holds since October 2025, but Israel continues military operations along the ‘Yellow Line’ and has violated ceasefire terms repeatedly. 72,000+ Palestinians killed since October 7, 2023. 1.4 million remain displaced across 1,200 sites. Reconstruction estimated at $50B+ but barely begun. The Iran war has diverted international attention.
October 7, 2023: The Hamas Attack
Hamas launched coordinated armed incursions from Gaza into southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 250+ hostages. The largest loss of Israeli civilian life in a single day. The attack shattered Israel’s deterrence doctrine and triggered the most devastating military response in Gaza’s history.
The Siege and Bombardment
Israel imposed a total siege on Gaza — cutting electricity, fuel, water, and food. Aerial bombardment destroyed entire neighborhoods. Ground invasion began October 27. A 7-day truce in November secured release of 81 hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Bombardment resumed December 1.
The Ground Invasion Expands
Israeli forces pushed into central and southern Gaza. Three battles fought around Khan Yunis. The Rafah offensive displaced over 1 million people from the last area designated as ‘safe.’ International Court of Justice ordered provisional measures. South Africa’s genocide case proceeded.
The Twelve-Day War with Iran
Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with missiles. The brief war damaged Iran’s nuclear program but failed to destroy the regime. Gaza fighting continued throughout, but international attention shifted to the Iran theater.
The Siege of North Gaza
Israel launched a devastating offensive in northern Gaza, systematically destroying remaining infrastructure. Hospitals, schools, and shelters were targeted. The death toll accelerated. International condemnation intensified but produced no policy change.
October 2025 Ceasefire
After 2 years of war, Israel and Hamas agreed to Phase 1 of a US-backed 20-point peace framework. Trump announced the deal. A ceasefire took effect October 10. Aid deliveries resumed. Hostage negotiations continued. But only 40% of allocated aid trucks actually entered Gaza.
Phase 2 Begins
US Special Envoy Witkoff announced launch of Phase 2 on January 14. Focus: demilitarization, technocratic governance, reconstruction. A National Committee for Gaza Administration (NCAG) was constituted. An International Board of Peace chaired by Trump was proposed. Palestinians were not consulted in the plan’s development.
The Iran War Reshapes Everything
Operation Epic Fury on February 28 killed Khamenei and triggered a multi-front regional war. Hezbollah broke its ceasefire with Israel on March 2. The Gaza ceasefire held technically, but Israeli military operations along the Yellow Line intensified. International attention shifted entirely to Iran.
A Ceasefire Without Peace
72,000+ dead. 1.4 million displaced. Infrastructure 80% destroyed. Reconstruction barely begun. Phase 2 stalled as Hamas refuses to disarm and Israel delays withdrawals. The absence of a political vision for Palestinian self-determination means the ceasefire is a pause, not a resolution. Analysts warn of a ‘perpetual insurgency’ by mid-2026.
Timeline
Hamas-led attack on Israel
Coordinated cross-border attacks kill ~1,200 in Israel and take ~250 hostages — the deadliest day in Israeli history.
Israel's air campaign and siege
Israel launches the heaviest bombardment of the conflict and imposes a near-total siege; mass displacement in the north begins.
Ground invasion begins
Israeli forces enter northern Gaza; the war becomes the deadliest Israeli–Palestinian conflict in history.
First truce and hostage exchange
A week-long pause exchanges hostages for prisoners and surges limited aid before fighting resumes.
Khan Younis and famine warnings
The offensive moves south to Khan Younis; the IPC warns of imminent famine in the north as aid access collapses.
Rafah operation
Israel moves into Rafah despite international objection; the last major population refuge is displaced again.
ICJ and ICC proceedings
The ICJ hears a genocide case and orders provisional measures; the ICC seeks arrest warrants — the legal front becomes central.
Attrition, hostages, aid war
Negotiations stall and restart repeatedly; hostage deaths, aid-convoy chaos and northern isolation define the period.
Ceasefire framework
A phased ceasefire and hostage-for-prisoner framework is reached; implementation is fragile and contested.
Fragile ceasefire holds
Gaza sits under a fragile ceasefire amid the broader regional conflagration; reconstruction and governance remain unresolved.
Required Reading
- The Gaza War: A Comprehensive Guide — Britannica Editors (Britannica)
The most authoritative factual reference. Continuously updated timeline, casualty figures, ceasefire details, and the 20-point peace framework. - Phase Two of Gaza’s Ceasefire Will Fail Without a Political Vision — Various (Chatham House)
The most cited policy analysis of the ceasefire framework’s structural weaknesses. Argues that reconstruction without political self-determination is a recipe for renewed conflict. - Four Major Dynamics in Gaza War That Will Impact 2026 — Various (Responsible Statecraft)
Identifies four forces shaping 2026: the Iran war’s regional impact, the governance vacuum, reconstruction obstacles, and the generational radicalization of Palestinian youth. - Getting to Phase 2 in Gaza: Red Lines and Recommendations — Various (Washington Institute)
Detailed policy analysis of what Phase 2 requires and where it’s likely to fail. Examines Israeli, Palestinian, and American red lines. - Gaza 2026: Board of Peace and National Transitional Committee — UK House of Commons Library (UK Parliament)
The most comprehensive policy briefing on the governance structures proposed for post-war Gaza. Covers the Board of Peace, NCAG, International Stabilization Force, and reconstruction timeline. - The Gaza Crisis Timeline — British Red Cross (British Red Cross)
Humanitarian-focused timeline covering the impact on civilians. Includes displacement figures, aid delivery data, and hospital destruction documentation. - Timeline: Bearing Witness to Genocide in Gaza — MSF (Doctors Without Borders)
MSF’s documentation of the war’s impact on healthcare. Chronicles the systematic destruction of hospitals, killing of medical workers, and collapse of the health system. - Middle East Forecast for 2026 — The Soufan Center (Soufan Center)
Intelligence-community-adjacent analysis of how the Gaza war, Iran crisis, and Lebanon escalation interact. Forecasts regional dynamics for the year. - Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Tracker — CFR Center for Preventive Action (Council on Foreign Relations)
CFR’s continuously updated conflict tracker. Key data points on ceasefire status, humanitarian indicators, and diplomatic developments. - OCHA Humanitarian Situation Reports — UN OCHA (OCHA)
The authoritative source for humanitarian data. Weekly reports covering aid delivery, displacement, casualties, and protection risks.